Monster Power Analysis by Drothvader
Alright.
When I first heard about the Monster Power system with 1.0.5 I was pretty excited. Like really excited.
Not only is the game going to be more challenging, but there would be better rewards... right?
I keep seeing people say "MP1 is the most efficient way to farm" and I didn't really understand why. I kind of dismissed it as people just like killing stuff faster.
However, the more I looked at it, the more I realize this... Blizzard, out of all the things you could have possibly screwed up, this one takes the cake. I mean, this system is pretty bad...
So I'm going to quote Bashiok here.
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6571517189?page=2#30
Aw man... Damn. Yeah the description in the blog this morning is missing a crucial "for increased rewards" in that sentence. That's my fault. Thanks for the call out.
We'll of course have more info in a proper announcement piece on exactly how it'll work, but I'm digging the speculation!
So I thought... "Hey, this could be pretty neat! Increased Difficulty for Increased Rewards!"
However, today I looked at the numbers and ran an analysis... Blizzard, there's this nifty spreadsheet calculation program called Excel, it might be helpful to open it every once in a while... Just saying guys...
What I found, is that playing anything other than MP1 was HORRIBLY inefficient. Not even just slightly inefficient, but like HORRIBLE! Like, I don't even want to say that I wasted the hour making up these spreadsheets...
- Explaining the Math -
Alright, so the main argument here about efficiency is the speed at which you can kill monsters. Based on the Monster Health increases for Inferno, I am going to assume that if it takes 10 seconds to kill an elite in MP0, it will take 343.9 seconds to kill it in MP10. (Not really considering how much movement I'll have to make, but for the sake of simplicity I'm going to leave out these variables such as movement speed and time spent NOT DPSing...)
I'm also assuming that if it says 150% Health it actually has 50% more health not 2.5 times as much (150% More) If it actually is 2.5 times more HP then I'll have to redo the spreadsheet... but be warned that it will NOT work in Blizzard's favor.
A Monster with 2000 HP takes about 10 seconds to kill doing 200 DPS.
Likewise, a Monster with 68,780 (2,439% more HP) takes about 343.9 seconds to kill at 200 DPS.
So DPS is going to be a constant in this example.
Obviously you're going to play at whatever level you're comfortable with, but just know for the example I'm calculating your efficiency at whatever DPS you currently have.
One other thing you need to know before I start is this formula.
Probability of Independent Events
1 - ( Chance to NOT get an item ^ Number of Items Rolled )
This is a gamblers fallacy as each roll is independent of the last, but I need this formula to calculate efficiency.
- Analysis -
Alright, now for the good stuff.
http://i.imgur.com/rQrnP.png
http://i.imgur.com/q1N01.png
http://i.imgur.com/oKxAA.png
http://i.imgur.com/JLDHy.png
Looking at this chart, you'll see a bunch of random stuff. I'll try and explain it as best I can.
First, I have all my base numbers used in my calculations.
Base Magic Find - Magic Find before MP
Base Gold Find - Gold Find before MP
Base Legendary Drop Rate - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
Average Gold Drop - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
Time to Kill Elites (MP0 in Seconds) - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
Hypothetical XP per Monster - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
So what I did was I took these numbers, then calculated how many elites can be killed in an hour, and what kind of gold / XP / loot you'll see in an hour.
Now, this is assuming 100% of your time is spent killing elites. No stopping DPS, no doing anything else. So just know there's other factors that come into play, but they will impact this chart even more negatively. For right now I'm just calculating your time spent killing elites, nothing more.
If you notice a trend, EVERYTHING about Monster Power is just a lie... There's no such thing as increased rewards when you factor in this little thing called TIME. The rewards should be proportional to the TIME spent...
Now let's bring you up to full Paragon Level 100. (375% Magic and Gold Find which includes NV)
http://i.imgur.com/59Wg0.png
http://i.imgur.com/1UeTi.png
http://i.imgur.com/AhXtJ.png
http://i.imgur.com/JLDHy.png
Just for more emphasis, I have included some efficiency charts in there too.
Now, I was going to go out of my way to give suggestions on how to balance this system... but I'm not going to waste time doing that... IF you would like me to hammer out numbers to rebalance this system I will, but only if I know the feedback will actually be read. =/
I am just utterly disappointed... like really disappointed...
Here, let me really blow your mind.
http://i.imgur.com/57Cc1.png
15750% Magic Find at MP10 to be as efficient as MP0.
EDIT: I know that higher MP's are more efficient when you get to the point where you're oneshotting monsters. You can quit acting like I'm stupid...
I'm simply just saying it's poor game design to make a more "challenging" mode then have the entire point be to try and one shot it to maintain the same efficiency you would have 3-4 monster power levels prior.
The one and only point to this thread is that the only way to maintain farming efficiency is to get to the point where you're oneshotting everything.
"More guts more glory" is a really really inaccurate statement. As long as you're not oneshotting everything, Moving up in Monster Power is not worth your time.
Alright.
When I first heard about the Monster Power system with 1.0.5 I was pretty excited. Like really excited.
Not only is the game going to be more challenging, but there would be better rewards... right?
I keep seeing people say "MP1 is the most efficient way to farm" and I didn't really understand why. I kind of dismissed it as people just like killing stuff faster.
However, the more I looked at it, the more I realize this... Blizzard, out of all the things you could have possibly screwed up, this one takes the cake. I mean, this system is pretty bad...
So I'm going to quote Bashiok here.
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6571517189?page=2#30
Aw man... Damn. Yeah the description in the blog this morning is missing a crucial "for increased rewards" in that sentence. That's my fault. Thanks for the call out.
We'll of course have more info in a proper announcement piece on exactly how it'll work, but I'm digging the speculation!
So I thought... "Hey, this could be pretty neat! Increased Difficulty for Increased Rewards!"
However, today I looked at the numbers and ran an analysis... Blizzard, there's this nifty spreadsheet calculation program called Excel, it might be helpful to open it every once in a while... Just saying guys...
What I found, is that playing anything other than MP1 was HORRIBLY inefficient. Not even just slightly inefficient, but like HORRIBLE! Like, I don't even want to say that I wasted the hour making up these spreadsheets...
- Explaining the Math -
Alright, so the main argument here about efficiency is the speed at which you can kill monsters. Based on the Monster Health increases for Inferno, I am going to assume that if it takes 10 seconds to kill an elite in MP0, it will take 343.9 seconds to kill it in MP10. (Not really considering how much movement I'll have to make, but for the sake of simplicity I'm going to leave out these variables such as movement speed and time spent NOT DPSing...)
I'm also assuming that if it says 150% Health it actually has 50% more health not 2.5 times as much (150% More) If it actually is 2.5 times more HP then I'll have to redo the spreadsheet... but be warned that it will NOT work in Blizzard's favor.
A Monster with 2000 HP takes about 10 seconds to kill doing 200 DPS.
Likewise, a Monster with 68,780 (2,439% more HP) takes about 343.9 seconds to kill at 200 DPS.
So DPS is going to be a constant in this example.
Obviously you're going to play at whatever level you're comfortable with, but just know for the example I'm calculating your efficiency at whatever DPS you currently have.
One other thing you need to know before I start is this formula.
Probability of Independent Events
1 - ( Chance to NOT get an item ^ Number of Items Rolled )
This is a gamblers fallacy as each roll is independent of the last, but I need this formula to calculate efficiency.
- Analysis -
Alright, now for the good stuff.
http://i.imgur.com/rQrnP.png
http://i.imgur.com/q1N01.png
http://i.imgur.com/oKxAA.png
http://i.imgur.com/JLDHy.png
Looking at this chart, you'll see a bunch of random stuff. I'll try and explain it as best I can.
First, I have all my base numbers used in my calculations.
Base Magic Find - Magic Find before MP
Base Gold Find - Gold Find before MP
Base Legendary Drop Rate - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
Average Gold Drop - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
Time to Kill Elites (MP0 in Seconds) - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
Hypothetical XP per Monster - A Made up number for efficiency calculations.
So what I did was I took these numbers, then calculated how many elites can be killed in an hour, and what kind of gold / XP / loot you'll see in an hour.
Now, this is assuming 100% of your time is spent killing elites. No stopping DPS, no doing anything else. So just know there's other factors that come into play, but they will impact this chart even more negatively. For right now I'm just calculating your time spent killing elites, nothing more.
If you notice a trend, EVERYTHING about Monster Power is just a lie... There's no such thing as increased rewards when you factor in this little thing called TIME. The rewards should be proportional to the TIME spent...
Now let's bring you up to full Paragon Level 100. (375% Magic and Gold Find which includes NV)
http://i.imgur.com/59Wg0.png
http://i.imgur.com/1UeTi.png
http://i.imgur.com/AhXtJ.png
http://i.imgur.com/JLDHy.png
Just for more emphasis, I have included some efficiency charts in there too.
Now, I was going to go out of my way to give suggestions on how to balance this system... but I'm not going to waste time doing that... IF you would like me to hammer out numbers to rebalance this system I will, but only if I know the feedback will actually be read. =/
I am just utterly disappointed... like really disappointed...
Here, let me really blow your mind.
http://i.imgur.com/57Cc1.png
15750% Magic Find at MP10 to be as efficient as MP0.
EDIT: I know that higher MP's are more efficient when you get to the point where you're oneshotting monsters. You can quit acting like I'm stupid...
I'm simply just saying it's poor game design to make a more "challenging" mode then have the entire point be to try and one shot it to maintain the same efficiency you would have 3-4 monster power levels prior.
The one and only point to this thread is that the only way to maintain farming efficiency is to get to the point where you're oneshotting everything.
"More guts more glory" is a really really inaccurate statement. As long as you're not oneshotting everything, Moving up in Monster Power is not worth your time.
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